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Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season
Future Start The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC) :Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC) ::Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] 01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC) September 92L.INVEST AOI:Over Africa This isn't up on the TWO yet, but both the GFS and Euro are consistent at developing something near northern Cape Verde about a week from now, and following in Gaston's footsteps. Could be something to keep our eyes on in the long run. Ryan1000 16:26, August 26, 2016 (UTC) : This has a good shot at being Hermine or Ian depending on whether 99L/91L develop. Maybe it will be a hurricane. ~ Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']][[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM GASTON FORM! 22:03, August 26, 2016 (UTC) :: I am starting to think this will be Hermine - as 99L is the most annoying invest I have ever tracked, and at this point, I am starting to doubt development from that. This could have a shot at development over the next week or so. In the very long run, I hope it does not end up threatening anyone. ~ Steve Chat :D 02:31, August 27, 2016 (UTC) ::: Now on the TWO at 0/30. Unlike Gaston, this wave is expected to take a more westward path, and unlike 99L, it has more model support. Could be interesting down the road... ~ Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']][[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM HERMINE FORM! 17:48, August 27, 2016 (UTC) ::::: I've checked the latest run of the GFS and Euro and both models take this directly towards the eastern seabord of the U.S. in a week and a half to 2 weeks as a fairly powerful storm. GFS takes this into Savannah as a major hurricane, and the Euro makes it a major hurricane just north of the Bahamas, and likely eventually hitting the east coast. This may be a bad storm down the road...assuming 99L can become Hermine in the GoM, this'll be Ian. Ryan1000 12:57, August 28, 2016 (UTC) ::::::: Up to 0/60. This is a strong tropical wave already, and looks to become a dangerous storm. 99L might just be the distraction while this system actually becomes "the big one". However, it's still many days out, so that isn't certain. The Atlantic sure is ramping up this year! ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:59, August 28, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::: Down to 0/50, but it's still likely to become something big over the open Atlantic down the road. Assuming TD's 8 and 9 both become Hermine and Ian, this would be Julia instead. Ryan1000 21:26, August 28, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::: This is looking quite threatening down the road - we should keep our eyes out. I am really hoping this is no re-Hugo or Isabel like models suggest. Hopefully, it is just a fishspinning hurricane, that maybe even repeats its 2010 predecessor! ;) ~ Steve Chat :D 22:19, August 28, 2016 (UTC) 92L.INVEST And now it's been invested. Still at 0/50 though, but this is definitely something to watch this and next week. Ryan1000 04:58, August 30, 2016 (UTC) : For some odd reason, it's down to 0/40. It could be Julia assuming the two TD's that are taking too long to become named, eventually receive the names "Hermine" and "Ian". This is still something to look out over the long run. ~ Steve Chat :D 00:27, August 31, 2016 (UTC) :: Down to 0/30 right now. The wave has dry air in its path to deal with. But it could develop once it reaches the Lesser Antilles by Monday. I hope it doesn't pull a 99L/Hermine and take weeks to develop... ~ Steve Chat :D 00:59, September 1, 2016 (UTC) :::: Actually it might be better for it to intensify sooner, so it's more likely to go north and then east and not hit land. The GFS and Euro are thoroughly underwhelmed by this system, they don't make it anything at all even after it passes the Lessers. Ryan1000 03:12, September 1, 2016 (UTC) :::::: Down to 0/20, but still could become something down the road. I've grouped this with September in the event it forms down the road; if it doesn't we can move it to the August archive. Ryan1000 12:37, September 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::: At 10/20, and not looking likely to develop into much until beyond the 5-day window. ~ Steve Chat :D 02:46, September 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::::: It is now up to 20/30...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 13:29, September 3, 2016 (UTC) Still at 20/30, but NHC says conditions in the Carribean Sea aren't forecast to be conducive. Ian may have to wait... ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:31, September 4, 2016 (UTC) : Unless 92L does what Hermine did and become tropical after leaving the Caribbean. Although in order for that to happen, 92L would have to enter the Gulf of Mexico, not up the US east coast nor away from the US & Mexico altogether. But invests are tricky to forecast sometimes, so we'll just have to see what 92L does...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 01:51, September 5, 2016 (UTC) :: Down to 10/20. It doesn't look like 92L is going to develop unless it somehow makes it to the Gulf of Mexico. ~ Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']][[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM IAN FORM! 17:06, September 5, 2016 (UTC) :::: Now at 0/20. However, the NHC's wording now notes that conditions could become more favorable when it gets near the Yucatan Peninsula. 92L's been looking pretty organized for a while, actually. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:35, September 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::: I see 92L potentially becoming Ian by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula or even the GOM. It's going to take a while to develop, similar to 99L/Hermine. Hopefully it isn't anything destructive in the long run. ~ Steve Chat :D 18:47, September 5, 2016 (UTC) :::::: What the?! It already dropped off the TWO... I guess conditions became TOO unfavorable. ~ Steve Chat :D 03:49, September 7, 2016 (UTC) AOI.Straits of Florida A new Area of Invest has popped up in the Straits of Florida. At 10/10 like 93L is, and it isn't expected to develop. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC) :Wow. This is up to 40/40 now! ~ Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']][[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM IAN FORM! 18:17, September 9, 2016 (UTC) :::Welp didn't expect this jump in percentage, but even if it somehow does manage to become a depression, upper-level winds aren't very conducive for development. Ryan1000 20:29, September 9, 2016 (UTC) ::::Down to 30/30 and I would be surprised to see it develop. It if did develop, it might be a weaker version of Hermine. ~ Steve Chat :D 02:26, September 10, 2016 (UTC) 92L.INVEST (2nd time) I have moved this section to the discussion of invest 92L because this was in fact considered to be the same system as 92L and so was called invest 92L. This looked like a tropical depression earlier, but looks like it wasn't able to hang on long enough to be classified. It still has a small chance, but I doubt it. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 03:35, September 10, 2016 (UTC) : 10/10 and just forecast to weaken. Sorry, no TD here. ~ Steve Chat :D 00:31, September 11, 2016 (UTC) :*poof* and it's off the TWO. ~ Steve Chat :D 21:24, September 11, 2016 (UTC) 94L.INVEST AOI: Tropical Wave Another tropical wave has been added to the TWO. 0/20, though not seeing much model support in the near term. ~ Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']][[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM IAN FORM! 17:06, September 5, 2016 (UTC) : Now up to 0/30. Considering it's lack of model support I'd be surprised to see stronger than a TS from this though. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:36, September 5, 2016 (UTC) ::EURO now develops this into a minimal TS in about 5 days. This is much more likely to be a Fiona part 2 rather than a long-track Cape Verde hurricane, but nonetheless, another Atlantic storm would be nice. ~ Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']][[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM IAN FORM! 18:45, September 5, 2016 (UTC) :::I would hate to see a Fiona 2.0 or even an epic fail. Hopefully this wave develops into a hurricane despite the lack of model support. ~ Steve Chat :D 18:50, September 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::10/60. This looks likely to become Ian this weekend. ~ Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']][[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM IAN FORM! 14:55, September 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::::20/70, this is looking prime to become Ian, but it'll be following in Gaston's footsteps and out to sea the faster it develops. Ryan1000 19:25, September 6, 2016 (UTC) :::::::I'm glad it does appear to be a fishspinner. I just don't want anything devastating coming from future Ian. Hopefully we see a hurricane from the wave - it's got the potential I think. ~ Steve Chat :D 03:51, September 7, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::Down to 20/60, but still expected to develop sometime next week. If it stays weak as a wave like Hermine did, it may eventually make it to the northern Antilles or the gulf/eastern U.S. down the road. Ryan1000 00:16, September 8, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::::I still see this potentially becoming Ian in the long run, but it might still take a while to develop. Hopefully it doesn't pull a Hermine and form after a really long wait. If that happens it might be a threat to the Gulf region. ~ Steve Chat :D 02:25, September 9, 2016 (UTC) :::::::::::Up to 50/80. Here comes Ian! Nearly all models develop this storm now, but the intensity varies from hurricane strength on the GFS and CMC to a minimal tropical storm on the EURO. ~ Bob [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']][[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM IAN FORM! 21:40, September 9, 2016 (UTC) 94L.INVEST And now it's been invested. Up to 30/70. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC) : 70/90, this is probably becoming Ian in the next day or two. Ryan1000 23:42, September 9, 2016 (UTC) :: Ian is about to come. Thank god models are forecasting a hurricane and it doesn't appear to be any future land threat (so far...). ~ Steve Chat :D 02:24, September 10, 2016 (UTC) :: Hopefully, he doesn't continue the "'I' curse". Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 18:39, September 10, 2016 (UTC) ::: 80/90 and might be a TD tomorrow. This shouldn't continue the "I" curse - it will likely only go out to sea. ~ Steve Chat :D 00:34, September 11, 2016 (UTC) :::: Down to 70/80 and now just has a small window for development. Upper-level winds will become less conducive for 94L in a couple days, so it might unfortunately only be a fail name-stealer. :( Hopefully if it does develop, it remains a TD. ~ Steve Chat :D 21:28, September 11, 2016 (UTC) :::Now up to 80/80. I hope this forms soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:43, September 12, 2016 (UTC) 93L.INVEST AOI: Near Leeward Islands At 10/20 and conditions aren't expected to be favorable for much development. I'll be so surprised if it develops. ~ Steve Chat :D 02:25, September 9, 2016 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Surprisingly enough, this became invested before the system behind it. Still not expected to develop though. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC) : Yep, nothing coming here. Julia will have to come later assuming 94L is a future TC. ~ Steve Chat :D 00:36, September 11, 2016 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances! : Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC) :: Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC) :: Its already here, so I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC) :::Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC) Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions (credit to Steve for the colors) *Alex - '''1%' - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022! *Bonnie - 2% - A persistent storm that made landfall in South Carolina. It didn't cause much damage, but it did cause two deaths. She refused to die, though, as she unexpectedly regenerated. She'll be back in 2022. *Colin - 5% - A disorganized, messy tropical storm that hit Florida, Did not appear to do any significant damage, but did cause 4 deaths. Should be back in 2022, and let's hope he is better looking then. *Danielle - 1% - Made landfall in Mexico and caused one death, but one death is usually never enough to warrant retirement. She will return in 2022. *Earl - 70% - Caused at least 65 total deaths, making it the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy, and Mexico's deadliest storm since Stan. I think Earl deserves to be retired, but it's not definite. At least $100 million in damage. Has a fairly high chance of retirement. It's quite likely he won't return in 2022. *Fiona - 0% - Didn't fail quite as badly as originally thought, as she reached 50 mph for a brief time and survived some moderate shear. Nevertheless, she was still a fail. Fiona the Fish Failicia will be back in 2022. *Gaston - 0% - Gastonic Gaston was awesome. Passed north of the Azores, but no damage or deaths were reported. See you in 2022! *Hermine (preliminary) - 35% - Ended the 11-year Florida hurricane drought and caused at least $500 million in damage and 5 deaths. There's a chance Hermine will be retired, but it's nowhere close to a certainty. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC) ---- Steve's retirement predictions and storm grades: (Other users can feel free to use my colors) (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z) *Alex: Grade: A+ Retirement: 1% - In the Azores, it caused a death and minimal damage. It was an amazing early season hurricane and one of the earliest hurricanes on record. Its "being early" achievement alone is deserving of the grade I gave. It still could have been better though, like a major hurricane not affecting land. *Bonnie: Grade: D-''' Retirement: '''5% - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. It was just a weak TS that barely amounted to much, but the fact that it was the second pre-season storm and that it regenerated increases its grade. Will almost certainly be back in 2022. *Colin: Grade: D''' Retirement: '''10% - Colin was the earliest 3rd named storm on record, enough to raise the grade by about a letter. However, it was really disorganized. 4 deaths give it a tiny shot, but I doubt retirement. *Danielle: Grade: D''' Retirement: '''1% - Did not appear to do much, but it did cause a single death. It was also the earliest 4th named storm on record, enough to raise the grade a little. *Earl: Grade: B-''' Retirement: '''75% - Gets credit for being a hurricane and especially for restrengthening over the BOC, but the damage and deaths it caused is enough to lower the grade a little. 65 deaths and at least $115.5 million dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This storm has a high shot at retirement due to the destruction and deadly floods and mudslides that it caused throughout Honduras, Belize, and Mexico, as well as the deaths it caused as a tropical wave. It was the deadliest storm to strike Mexico since Stan in 2005, and the deadliest storm overall in the Atlantic since Sandy. If Stan was retired, this likely will be too. I doubt Earl will still be around in 2022. *Fiona: Grade: D-''' Retirement: '''0% - A storm that tried and fought the dry air well, but it was weak so I cannot give it any higher than a D-. *Gaston: Grade: A''' Retirement: '''0.01% - An impressive major hurricane that fought to stay alive. It also became a cool annular hurricane with a big eye. It didn't cause damage or kill people. But it did touch the Azores, preventing a complete 0%. *Eight: Grade: Z''' Retirement: '''You can't retire a TD. :P - A laughable fail. It never became a TS despite repeated predictions for it to become one. XD *Hermine: Grade: B-''' Retirement: '''40% - This seems to have a chance, with at least 500 million in damage and 5 deaths. Destruction in Florida was not good - photos showed many forced from their homes as well as bad flooding, destroyed roads, people using canoes to get to places, and more. If Isaac was snubbed, this might have a lower chance of retirement than at first glance. For the grade, it gets points for breaking the Florida hurricane landfall drought, and being the first GOM hurricane since Ingrid. [[User:Steve820 |'''Steve820]] ''Talk to me''' 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC) ---- Raindrop's Retirements (Retirement colors: '''0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%') I use Steve's retirement colors, so thanks to him. I base my retirement predictions on what kind of stuff has been retired in the past, along with where they happened and how much lasting impact they inflict. Therefore, storms that made landfall and caused a few deaths and some damage get very low chances because NHC never retires storms with those impacts. *Alex: 1%- A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January. *Bonnie: 1%- Despite two direct deaths, minimal damage doesn't get storms retired, and so Bonnie will return in 2022. *Extratropical Low Pressure System Colin: 2%- 4 deaths and minor damage doesn't warrant retirement, and plus Colin barely qualifies as a tropical storm anyway. The 4 dead people may think differently though. *Danielle: 1%- Danielle would have done near nothing if not for the one person who sadly got killed. *Earl: 45% '- Wow, Earl really had a big impact for a category 1 hurricane! The flooding turned out to be extensive and the death toll is over 60 now. This means Earl definitely has a shot at retirement. Due to the NHC being conservative about retiring names and the fact that current damage totals are not too extensive yet, I'm keeping the odds of retirement worse than even, but Earl has caused major disruption to an entire country and this may need to be raised later. *Fiona: '''0% '- Fiona was a weak storm, but it fought! Fiona tried her best through days of strong shear, but eventually lost the battle. However, Fiona's ghost still wanted to haunt us and contributed to the formation of TD8. Fiona was actually a pretty fun storm to track, and for the first time this year, it only spun fish. *Gaston: '0% '- Our first major hurricane of the season, Gaston, put on an impressive show while never threatening any land - actually Gaston threatened the Azores, but weakened rapidly and did nothing. Gaston looked pretty bad during the period of high shear, but once that was gone, Gaston did not dissapoint! Gaston's lame attempt at affecting land doesn't even give it the slightest shot at retirement, considering Alex did practically nothing to the Azores. RIP Gaston, you were an amazing storm! *Hermine: '25% '- Hermine was the storm that finally brought the Florida hurricane drought to an end. Of course, that comes with a cost. Rainfall has been extensive with Hermine, and the storm surge has been bad, and it appears more impacts are yet to come. With the potential for future impacts, Hermine is not done yet despite no longer being tropical, and it stands a shot of retirement. However, the NHC snubbed Issac and other storms that hit the US and did damage, so the chance will remain low unless damage totals end up being a few billion dollars, which is hopefully not the case. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:21, July 27, 2016 (UTC) Puffle's retirement predictions (Retirement colors: '''0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors) *Alex: 1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go. *Bonnie: 1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022! TG's Retirements (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%)(Category colors: TS, C1, C2, C3, C4, C5) *'Alex': 1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022. *'Bonnie': 5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. TG 20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC) *'Colin': 10% - Though was a weak storm at landfall, it did do some damage. I was looking at pictures of the damage it inflicted earlier in Florida/Georgia. Most of the damage in Florida was caused by flooding and high winds. Colin caused four deaths, which still gives a very slim chance of retirement. We'll see him again in 2022. TG 12:45, June 7, 2016 (UTC) *'Danielle': 5% - Though we did see the earliest 4th named storm, it caused insignificant damage and 1 fatality. Disorganized Danielle will be back in 2022, and hopefully will be a fish-storm. TG 17:44, June 21, 2016 (UTC) *'Earl': 75% - If Stan was retired, I bet this will go too. Not only did it wreak havoc in Central American countries like Belize and Mexico, but it badly damaged one of Belize's most valuable products, crops. Also, Earl was the deadliest Mexican hurricane since Stan in 2005. TG 17:38, August 4, 2016 (UTC) *'Fiona': 0% - Finally, a break from casualties, but Fiona was a very disappointing storm, much like its 2010 predecessor. TG 22:01, August 19, 2016 (UTC) *'Gaston': 1% - Gaston didn't do anything in the Azores, but he gets a 1% chance for affecting the area. Gaston might be my favorite looking Atlantic storm. *'Hermine': 30% - Hermine does have a chance to go, but we saw many storms snubbed by the United States in the past few years, such as Fay and Isaac. Damage totals from Hermine are $228.5 million, roughly $300 million below Fay's damage and around $2 billion less than Isaac. TG 20:56, September 1, 2016 (UTC) Leeboy's retirements. Eh, why not? I'm bored, and even though I'm usually against starting it this early, we've had 3 storms already. And since Alex formed in January you could technically say we're about halfway through the season by now. So, here we go. (Thanks to Steve for the colors.) *Alex: 1.1%- 'Early and awesome start to the season, but that damage to the Azores was minor so it gets a 1. The extra .1% '''isn't '''due to how early it formed. It's because Alex is one of my personal favorite names and I'm biased. *Bonnie-'''5%:'My Bonnie did a lot of lying over the ocean. Forgive the joke, I couldn't resist :P. Anyways, 2 confirmed deaths due to rip currents, and $600,000 in damages gives this a small chance of retirement. *Colin-'''10%: Damage from flooding was worse than I initially thought. Video was sent to The Weather Channel showing manatees 'swimming in floodwaters in someone's yard. Fortunately still no reports of fatalities. *sigh* unfortunately it did cause four deaths, so once again the percentage is upped slightly. *Danielle- '''5%: '''Minor damage, but unfortunately caused 1 death. *'Earl: '''50%: Wow, I did not expect it to be this bad, this actually has a fair chance of retirement. Leeboy100Hello! 17:18, June 7, 2016 (UTC) ---- KN2731's storm grades & retirements Grading from A to F (you can guess what they mean). Retirements in multiples of 5. # Alex: grade '''A, retirement 5%. Nice January hurricane that made landfall in the Azores, but he'll be back in 2022. # Bonnie: grade C''', retirement '''10%. Regenerated against the odds. 2 direct deaths, but minimal damage. Retirement chances low. # Colin: grade C''', retirement '''15%. Disappointing, disorganized and decrepit storm. (3"D"s?!) 4 fatalities (1 is presumed) but minimal damage. The waterspouts were cool, but being earliest "C" storm gives it a C. # Danielle: grade D''', retirement '''5%. Possible candidate for weakest storm of the season. Unfortunately 1 fatality. # Earl: grade B''', retirement '''60%. Nice start to August after an absolutely horrible July, but there have been 65 deaths and 12 people are still missing, making Earl the deadliest Atlantic storm since Sandy. The damage total is at least US$115 million and continues to have potential to rise. However as the NHC is conservative and damage is more of extensive rather than severe, I won't give anything above 70% for retirement unless further updates warrant that. # Fiona: E''', retirement '''0%. First storm that hasn't affected land. Unfortunately it was weak. # Gaston: grade A''', retirement '''5%. Became a major twice, with the second time at unusually high latitude. Azores impact was minor. # Hermine: currently active (though post-tropical), retirement 35% looking at the extent of flood damage. This will likely change with further updates. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:53, September 4, 2016 (UTC) Ryan1000's retirement predictions We have enough storms by now for me to start: * Alex - 1% - Killed a person and caused a little damage in the Azores, on top of being a very rare January hurricane. Not negligible, but not enough for retirement either. * Bonnie - 2% - Killed two people and caused some damage in South Carolina from floods, on top of being the second pre-season storm in an Atlantic season in only 4 years. Still not enough for retirement though. * Colin - 4% - Earliest 3rd storm and was a little deadlier than Bonnie and Alex, but still rather minor overall. * Danielle - 1% - Earliest 4th storm, but Danielle only caused minor impacts in Mexico and probably won't get retired. * Earl - 65% - The death toll has been upped to more than 60, mostly in Mexico, and there was at least 110 million in damage (in Belize alone) from Earl, which is rather extensive, though not catastrophic. If the final damage totals turn out to be what I fear they could be (around 1+ billion), then this is probably a guaranteed retirement. It was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico since Stan. * Fiona - 0% - Not a complete fail but was a fishspinner nonetheless, so no * Gaston - 1% - Assuming Gaston passes over the western Azores as a tropical storm (like it's currently forecast) it will have impact there and get some credit. Otherwise though, it wasn't much. * Hermine - 30% - 5 deaths and 500 million in damage isn't negligible, but for the the U.S, it's likely not enough. Keep in mind the U.S. did snub storms like Isaac '12 and Fay '08, both of which were more destructive and deadly than Hermine. There you have it...for now. Ryan1000 21:08, August 7, 2016 (UTC) iBahan1829's List Of Retirement Candidates #Category 1 Alex: 0.1%: Barely any damage to the Azores. So, Alex will return in 2022. #Tropical Storm Bonnie: 0.1%: Like Alex, Bonnie did barely any damage to any land. Regeneration was neat, but this storm ended up weak anyway. #Tropical Storm Colin: 1%: Actually did something. Flooded multiple Florida cities and that's pretty much all it did. Debby was worse, but it still wasn't retired. Colin will stay for 2022. #Tropical Storm Danielle: 0.1%: Repeat of Alex and Bonnie. Next! #Category 1 Earl: 55%: Okay, now we're talking. ~60 deaths!? Holy cow! Bad Earl! On top of that, it caused havoc in Belize! This might actually get retired. #Tropical Storm Fiona: 0%: Fiona is equal to fish, so I might as well give this a 0%. #Category 3 Gaston: 2%: Could be the second tropical storm this year to impact the Azores, so that 2% is what I predict. #Category 1 Hermine: 40-50%: This is the second tropical cyclone this year to impact FLORIDA, and the first hurricane to impact Florida period since Wilma of October 2005. So, good luck, Florida. Oh, and by the way, Florida is the 20%, the other 20-30% is the U.S. east coast and New England... [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:50, August 9, 2016 (UTC) Allan´s retirement Predictions 1. Alex 0.1% Even though it was a really good surprise, and had an indirect death,its nothing for it to be retire from the list. So we will see him again in 2022. 2. Bonnie 0.1% She was a fighter not going to doubt it, She even came back from death but its impact in the states were minimal at most. She just tickle some states. The 2 deads will not make the states ask for her, so Sayonara until 2022. 3,Colin 0.1% Damages were even less than Bonnie but he produce double of deads. That .1% its just becausse it affect land because imo it merits a zero. 4. Danielle 0.1% Weakest storm so far in 2016 and it just produce 1 death. Her effects on Mexico were minimal and at most they were overshadow by Earl later on. So see you in 2022 beotch. 5. Earl 65% the real deal of the season so far. His damages in Belize are compare to those of Iris in 2001 it has already produce 100,000 dollars in damage and its not final tally in that country. Earl big chance of retirement comes from its effects in Mexico where it has 52 deads so far and its describe as the worst storm in Puebla´s history. It produce damages to other states too. With the death toll in a country that prides itself from being prepare to this types of disasters it was a hard hit for Mexico´s ego. Imo they will not condone this one to be staying. I am not counting the DR because the fatalities were when Earl was disturbance and not a storm as such it might not count for choice in retirement . Allanjeffs 20:36, August 12, 2016 (UTC) Isaac's prediction 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%. *Alex - 0% - Little damage to Azores. *Bonnie - 0% - Less than $1 million in damage. *Colin - 0% - Minimal damage. *Danielle - 0% - Little damage. *Earl - 50% - Over $100 million in damage and 67 deaths, a good possibility. *Fiona - 0% - Fishspinner. *Gaston - ? --Isaac829 00:18, August 30, 2016 (UTC) Post-Season Changes I know it's still kind of early, but the Atlantic is completely dead and there is not much else to talk about in the Atlantic right now. Anyway, the NHC is expected to release Hurricane Alex's tropical cyclone report later this month. Dvorak estimates for the hurricane estimated winds as high as 82.2kt (90-95 mph). I think there's a good chance of Alex's intensity being upgraded to 90 mph, and even a slight shot that Alex will be upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm. The pressure was also likely lower than 979, maybe in the low 970s, which would make Alex the strongest January Atlantic storm on record. We will have to find out in a couple weeks, if not sooner. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM EARL FORM! 02:04, July 17, 2016 (UTC) :11 days left. I recall from somewhere that the NHC was supposed to finish this in June, but optimistically this delay could mean an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, July 20, 2016 (UTC) ::1 day left, and I hope the NHC releases it tonight. It would be a nice for an otherwise completely inactive July. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, July 31, 2016 (UTC) ::Eric Blake is suppose to be the one writing this report, will see. Allanjeffs 03:36, August 2, 2016 (UTC) Replacement names Earl is looking to be a surprisingly good candidate for retirement at this point, given the rather high death toll in Mexico and damage in Belize, despite its low intensity. So...if Earl does get retired, what do you think it should be replaced by? Some of my suggestions are here: *Edvin *Edgar *Elan *Eli(e) *Elvin *Emmett *Emile *Elliot *Elric *Evan *Ethan *Elwin *Elwood *Elson Like with Joaquin last year, there are a lot of good "E" names available to replace Earl given that 1) relatively few "E" names have been retired, and 2) none of the "E" retirees we have had were male names. Ryan1000 02:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC) :I'd go with either Edgar or Evan. TG 10:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC) ::My vote goes to Elliot't', spelled the same way as Elliott Smith. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:39, August 11, 2016 (UTC) ::Edgar and Elvis would be some good replacements. ~BOB [[User:Bobnekaro|'Page']] [[Message Wall:Bobnekaro|'Wall']] FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC) :::Mexico's track record might mean this could have a lower shot of retirement (especially since they snubbed storms such as Alex and Karl), but I personally think it has a pretty good shot at getting retired, since it was the deadliest hurricane since Sandy and caused at least $100 million in damage (in Belize alone). Once Mexico damage tolls come out, I won't be surprised if the toll skyrockets past $1 billion. My favorite replacement names out of Ryan's list are Edgar, Elliot, Evan, and Ethan. I also suggest Emmanuel, and as Bob said above, Elvis (a storm named after Elvis Presley would be epic!). ''St''''eve'' 02:08, August 12, 2016 (UTC) :::I wouldn't really like having the name "Elvis" on the lists because of "Hurricane Elvis" in 2003, which was a deadly derecho that struck Memphis with 100 mph winds. TG 10:56, August 12, 2016 (UTC) :::Steve, The thing is that I think Mexico didnt retired Karl because it didnt caused a lot of deads like Earl has done. Its now being said in the news that this have been the worst storm on record for Puebla in terrms of death toll. Maybe the damage of Karl was extensive but I am pretty sure many Mexicans do not remember him because the death toll was low and most damage was concentrated in Veracruz. Meanwhile Earl have caused trouble in Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Queretaro and Hidalgo to mention some. Being Mexico the most affected of the countries in the path of Earl I believe its replacement will be in Spanish so Elias, Efrain,Emanuel or Edgar are good candidates for replacement. If Belize is the one to request it for retirement the name might be one usually use in English. Allanjeffs 17:58, August 12, 2016 (UTC) Here are some more "E" names: *Edwin *Elmo *Emilio *Enrico *Enzo *Emanuel *Emanuele *Evaristo *Evandro *Edison *Edmond *Elton *Emery *Eustace Andros 1337 (talk) 21:11, August 12, 2016 (UTC) :I would really hate seeing Emanuel on the list due to confusion with the very similar name, Manuel. TG 11:00, August 13, 2016 (UTC) :::I was going to mention that too, I doubt Em(m)anuel will be chosen to replace Earl, especially since the country most affected by Earl (Mexico) retired Manuel just 3 years ago. My favorite choice would be Evan, but if Mexico submits Spanish names then Esteban would be my pick. Emilio and Enrico are also possible but they could be confused with Emilia (the female version of the name, and scheduled for the 2018 EPac season) and Enrique (used last year in the EPac). Ryan1000 04:47, August 14, 2016 (UTC) ::::With Joaquin last year, we've seen that replacement names don't have to match the country or the language of the retired name. Edwin or Edvin, Edgar, Edison or Elvis sound more likely from the NHC. Unless the NHC decides to continue with names of popular movie/TV characters and goes with Elmo. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:14, August 15, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Well, it's not a universal rule of thumb (Felix '07 hit Nicaragua hard, a Spanish-speaking country, but they chose Fernand, the French version of Fernand''o, to replace him), but it's usually more likely for said affected country to submit names of their language, and the WMO usually picks the first of the 3-4 names that are submitted to them for replacement. 'Ryan1000''' 03:50, August 16, 2016 (UTC)